Revenue Simulator
User Guide
This tool models the revenue economics of RAIKU, a Solana blockspace marketplace protocol. It lets you explore protocol-level treasury projections, validator yield uplift, and customer blockspace costs across four market scenarios — all driven by on-chain data from Trillium, Jito Foundation, and Dune Analytics.
RAIKU is a Solana blockspace marketplace that sells guaranteed transaction inclusion via two auction types:
Sealed-bid auction for reserved compute unit (CU) windows, executed before the block is built. Customers bid a fee per CU and are guaranteed inclusion in a Raiku-controlled slot.
Real-time tip-based ordering at block construction time — similar to existing tip-based MEV bundle systems. Customers submit bids at the last second; the highest bidder gets priority ordering.
Revenue split: 95–99% of gross revenue flows to validators (governance range). The remaining 1–5% is the protocol take, redistributed as: customer rebates, validator bonuses, growth & buyback, and residual treasury.
All tabs share the same four scenario presets. Switching scenario resets all adjustable inputs to the values below. Protocol take rates (AOT 5%, JIT 5%) are identical across all scenarios — only market participation assumptions differ. Fee/CU defaults are calibrated against three market regimes (Normal / Elevated / Extreme) — see §07.
* SOL Price is live-fetched from Binance (SOLUSDT) on page load: spot for Current Market, 365-day average for Last 12 Months, 730-day average for Last 24 Months + Congestion. Bull Case is fixed at $250. † JIT Market is annualized from the Jito Foundation API: last 15 epochs (~30 days) for Current Market; 12-month and 24-month windows for the other two. Bull Case (5M SOL/yr) is a fixed stress assumption. Fee/CU for Current Market is the 30-day AOT program scope p25 (floor 0.10 lam, data-driven from Dune). Last 12 Months, Last 24 Months + Congestion, and Bull Case use fixed calibrated values (Normal / Elevated / Extreme regimes).
Top-down protocol-level revenue model. Estimates annual gross revenue, the protocol treasury, and validator pools for a given set of market assumptions.
Inputs (left sidebar)
- SOL Price — $10–$400. Converts all SOL-denominated outputs to USD.
- AOT / JIT Take Rate — % of gross revenue retained by the protocol (0–10% each).
- Customer Rebate — % of gross returned to customers from the protocol pool.
- Validator Bonus — % of gross redistributed to validators from the protocol pool.
- Raiku Stake % — Share of total Solana stake controlled by validators running RAIKU. Determines slot allocation.
- Block Share (CU %) — % of each Raiku block's 60M CU reserved for AOT auctions.
- Avg Auction Fee/CU — Average winning bid per compute unit in lamports (see §07 for calibration methodology).
- Total JIT Market — Total annual SOL volume of JIT tips on Solana (scenario-driven; sourced from Jito Foundation MEV reward API).
- Raiku JIT Share % — RAIKU's capture of the JIT market.
Revenue formulas
× Block Share% × 60,000,000 CU/block
× Fee/CU (lam) × Blocks/year ÷ 1,000,000,000
Outputs
- Revenue overview — AOT Revenue, JIT Revenue, Total Gross Revenue; annual / monthly / per-block.
- Waterfall — Validator Base, Validator Bonus, AOT Rebate, JIT Rebate, Growth & Buyback, Treasury.
- Revenue Flow diagram — Sankey showing how gross revenue distributes to each destination.
- Sensitivity matrix — AOT Protocol Treasury across Stake % × Fee/CU grid.
- Scenario comparison — 4 side-by-side cards for Current Market / Last 12 Months / Last 24 Months + Congestion / Bull Case.
Two independent sub-sections covering validator economics at two levels of abstraction.
4a — Protocol Level
Aggregate yield composition for the Raiku validator set: how much of total staking APY comes from each source, broken down into six components — Issuance · Network Block Fees · Raiku AOT · Validator Bonus · Raiku JIT · Other JIT. All inputs mirror Tab 1 — Revenue Model; this sub-section has no independent sliders.
- Scenario selector — 4 buttons (Current Market / Last 12 Months / Last 24 Months + Congestion / Bull Case). Resets all Tab 1 — Revenue Model inputs.
- Read-only context: SOL Price, Raiku Stake %, Block Share %, Avg Fee/CU, Raiku Validator Stake (SOL).
- Total Validator APY + Raiku Uplift badge — incremental APY added by running RAIKU vs. not running it.
- 6-segment yield bar — visual decomposition of total APY into:
Issuance·Network Block Fees·Raiku AOT·Validator Bonus·Raiku JIT·Other JIT - Revenue table — per block / epoch / month / year; SOL and USD.
- Validation panel — simulated values cross-checked against Trillium epoch benchmarks (latest epoch, 12M all, 24M elevated+extreme). Green cells indicate the reference most relevant for the active scenario.
4b — Individual Level
Per-validator view: revenue for a specific validator with a given stake size.
This section is local for validator-specific inputs such as Delegated Stake, Network Stake %, SOL Price, and manual overrides on Issuance APY / Network Fees APY. Raiku-related yield and revenue, however, inherit the current live Protocol Level economics. As a result, changes to Protocol Level settings such as take rate and other live revenue drivers update Individual Level outputs immediately.
- Delegated Stake — editable (default P50 median = 152,908 SOL); ↺ resets to median.
- Network Stake % — derived from Delegated Stake ÷ total staked SOL (~426M SOL; source: Solana Compass, snapshot Apr 2026).
- SOL Price — local to this section; independent from Tab 1 — Revenue Model.
- Issuance APY — initialised from the active Protocol Level scenario; user-adjustable; ↺ resets to Protocol Level value. Computed as inflation_rate ÷ staking_ratio (gross APY; currently ≈ 3.90% ÷ 68% ≈ 5.74%). APY is the primary displayed quantity; APR is secondary.
- Network Fees APY — syncs live from Protocol Level (same NETWORK_FEES_BENCHMARK_APR × (1 − Block Share) formula, converted to APY) by default, so both sections always agree. Editing it locally applies only to Individual Level outputs; ↺ resets to the live Protocol Level value.
- Network Positioning — histogram of all 762 active validators (Trillium epoch 945) with the user's stake highlighted; rank bar with P25 / P50 / P75 / P90 reference points; approximate rank (#X of 762).
- Annual Revenue KPIs — total annual revenue in USD and SOL; per-epoch equivalent.
- 6-component yield decomposition — same structure as Protocol Level, with Raiku-related components reflecting current live Protocol Level economics.
- Revenue table — per block / epoch / month / year for this specific validator.
- Zero-stake guardrail — if Delegated Stake or implied Network Stake % is zero, Individual Level yield and revenue are zeroed / safely suppressed and a warning is shown: "You need non-zero delegated stake / network share to earn validator revenue."
Analyses the cost breakdown for a customer — Prop AMM, Cranker, Oracle, Payments, DEX, Lending, Perps, Bridge, NFT, Gaming, DePIN (optionally Arbitrage Bot) — purchasing blockspace via Raiku AOT, Raiku JIT, or Other JIT (non-Raiku ordering services).
- Customer category & profile — dropdown populated from embedded program database (Dune 30-day data, top 500 programs).
- CU/block and Fee/CU — per route (Raiku AOT, Raiku JIT, Other JIT).
- Raiku Stake % and block allocation caps per route.
- Spend matrix — per route: CU volume, Fee/CU, total spend (SOL) × per block / epoch / month / year.
- Block distribution — Raiku blocks vs. Non-Raiku blocks per epoch.
- Spend composition bar — AOT vs JIT vs Other JIT share of total cost.
Note: some customer profiles include a “View in Block Simulation” link that opens Tab 4 with the selected profile pre-loaded.
Micro-level simulation of a single Raiku block. Models how competing customer bids aggregate into a 60M CU block and which customers win space at what effective fee/CU.
- Scenario selector — initialises customer demand and fee assumptions.
- Per-customer category — CU demand and bid (lam/CU) per archetype.
- Bid histogram — frequency distribution of bids by fee/CU.
- Block fill % — how much of the 60M CU capacity is allocated in this simulation.
- Blended fee/CU — CU-weighted average winning bid for the block.
- Per-customer breakdown — which archetypes win space and at what cost.
Note: Block Simulation is a realism check. Its results do not feed back into Tabs 1–2.
| Source | Data | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Trillium API | MEV tips, priority fees, issuance rewards, validator count, active stake, SOL price — per epoch and per validator | Epochs 552–945 (Dec 2023–present) |
| Jito Foundation API | Total network JIT tips (MEV) per epoch. Cross-checked against Trillium: ratio = 1.000× | Epochs 390–934 |
| Solana Compass | Total staked SOL (~426M SOL, snapshot Apr 2026); staking ratio; inflation rate | Snapshot reference |
| Dune Analytics | Per-program fee/CU (30-day aggregate); daily priority fees (91-day); top 500 programs | 30-day rolling window |
How Fee/CU is calibrated
Fee/CU (lamports per compute unit) measures the price actors pay to get their transactions included quickly. It combines priority fees (paid directly to the validator) and MEV/JIT tips (paid via Jito-style ordering). Together, these represent the real willingness-to-pay for blockspace priority.
Two data sources are combined:
- 30-day Dune data — program-level fee/CU for the top 500 programs. Arb bots are excluded from AOT calibration (they are JIT-only by nature). Used by Current Market (p25 of AOT-scope active payers, floor 0.10 lam).
- 12–24 month Trillium epoch calibration — epoch-level non-base fee/CU classified by market regime, used to set fixed defaults: Last 12 Months 1.50 lam (Normal median), Last 24 Months + Congestion 2.00 lam (Elevated), Bull Case 3.50 lam (Extreme upper tail).
Market conditions (regimes)
Epochs are tagged based on rolling 30-epoch fee volatility. Note: Current Market uses the 30-day program-level AOT scope from Dune (not epoch-level regime classification); the regime table applies to the longer-horizon scenarios.
| Regime | Description | Used in scenarios |
|---|---|---|
| Normal | Typical fee environment, low volatility | Last 12 Months |
| Elevated | Higher-than-usual fees; moderate congestion | Last 24 Months + Congestion |
| Extreme | Memecoin surges, high MEV periods, peak congestion | Bull Case (upper tail) |
Scenario fee/CU defaults: Current Market 0.10 lam (30d AOT scope p25, floor — data-driven) · Last 12 Months 1.50 lam (Normal regime median, fixed) · Last 24 Months + Congestion 2.00 lam (Elevated regime, fixed) · Bull Case 3.50 lam (Extreme regime upper tail, fixed)
- AOT — Ahead-of-Time
- Sealed-bid auction for reserved compute unit windows, executed before a block is built. Customers are guaranteed inclusion in Raiku-controlled slots.
- JIT — Just-in-Time
- Real-time tip-based ordering at block construction time, similar to Jito bundles. Highest bidder gets priority ordering.
- CU — Compute Unit
- Solana's unit of computational work. Maximum 60,000,000 CU per block. Validators reserve a percentage of each block's CU for Raiku AOT auctions.
- Fee/CU (lam/CU)
- Price per compute unit in lamports. 1 SOL = 1,000,000,000 lamports. The Fee/CU slider is the single most impactful input in the AOT revenue formula.
- Network Block Fees
- Priority fees (paid by users to prioritise their transaction) plus base block rewards distributed to validators per block. Distinct from Raiku-specific MEV/tip revenue.
- Protocol Take Rate
- Percentage of gross revenue retained by the RAIKU protocol (governance range 0–5%). AOT and JIT have separate take rates.
- Validator Bonus
- A portion of the AOT protocol take redistributed back to validators running RAIKU as an adoption incentive.
- Customer Rebate
- A portion of the protocol take returned to customers, funded from the protocol pool. Reduces net cost for high-volume AOT/JIT users.
- Epoch
- Solana time unit ≈ 2–3 days (~432,000 slots). Approximately 182 epochs per year. All epoch-level metrics in the simulator are annualised using this rate.
- Network Stake %
- Your validator's delegated stake divided by total staked SOL (~426M SOL as of Apr 2026). Determines your share of slot leadership and revenue.
- Raiku Uplift
- The incremental APY gained by a validator running RAIKU, over and above standard Solana issuance + network fees.